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¿Saben lo que es la contabilidad mental? Es un término descrito por Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman y Richard Thaler como parte del estudio del comportamiento financiero. Crearon un profundo esquema de análisis que describe cómo los Humanos organizamos y tomamos decisiones creando cuentas diferentes en la mente que nos engañan y, si no tenemos cuidado, podrían llevarnos a la bancarrota. Por ejemplo, ocurre a la hora de ordenar el presupuesto familiar separándolo en distintas categorías como comida, alquiler o vacaciones. Usualmente tomamos una decisión financiera calculando el efecto sobre cada una de ellas y no sobre el ingreso general. Imagine que tiene un frasco con el dinero para el alquiler y otro con el dinero para la alimentación. Si los fondos de este último se consumen, muchos preferirían usar la tarjeta de crédito que tomar del fondo de alquiler.
Parece ser un acto irracional que no concuerda con una teoría básica: el dinero se va a consumir de todos modos. Así pues, la planificación financiera mediante un presupuesto puede llevarnos a ciertas paradojas. Si la pandemia ha reducido los ingresos de las familias creando un reajuste de sus presupuestos, para minimizar sus gastos a lo esencial, deberían tomar recursos de sus otras cuentas mentales para cubrir estas necesidades en vez de recurrir a la deuda. Según Datum, un 57% enfrenta sus necesidades solventándolos con deudas o con ayuda de terceros. Esta realidad afirma dos hipótesis: la primera es que a falta de una planificación financiera no existen cuentas mentales de ahorro y gastos; y la segunda que, de existir presupuestos, caen en la paradoja de no aceptar que el dinero que consume.
¿Esto ocurre en las empresas? Ya que también son administradas por Humanos, no se alejan de esas trampas de conducta; sin embargo, evitan usar la mente para realizar los cálculos. Las empresas aplican la planificación financiera creando diferentes cuentas que las hacen tomar decisiones sobre cada una de ellas sin considerar los efectos sobre el panorama general del negocio, y esto se profundiza más en los presupuestos estatales. De esta manera, muchas veces los presupuestos se ciñen a las proyecciones realizadas en el pasado que ocasionan perder oportunidades futuras. Hoy en día las empresas están gestionando sus decisiones financieras de manera diferente, sin tomar en cuenta la planificación diseñada inicialmente (antes de la pandemia). Por ejemplo, para decidir las operaciones de caja están mirando los efectos en un panorama general y no por categorías presupuestadas (como tomar dinero del frasco de alquiler temporalmente para comprar alimentos). Esto permite reajustar los presupuestos para afrontar la crisis.
Sea su caso como familia o empresa, la pandemia ha llevado a que nuestro comportamiento financiero se ajuste nuevamente a las teorías básicas de la economía. Ante una crisis inesperada reaccionamos de forma automática sin pensar en los futuros efectos de nuestras decisiones, pero cuando una crisis está siendo parte de nuestra normalidad comenzamos a ser más racionales: empezamos a planificar sin caer en paradojas. Aquí algunas recomendaciones:
- La planificación financiera es una gran herramienta de control y aprendizaje que debe ser preparada en las familias y en las empresas. Esto permitirá anticipar posibles eventos que nos ayudarán a tomar mejores decisiones.
- No caer en la paradoja del presupuesto. Debemos aceptar que el dinero se va a consumir de todos modos. Mire los efectos de sus decisiones de tal manera que cree bienestar general a su familia o empresa, sin restringirlas por categorías.
- Considere siempre un fondo de ahorro para emergencias, es la mejor forma de afrontar las crisis sin depender de otras fuentes. Según Datum, sólo el 1% está afrontando la crisis con sus ahorros.
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